Ensemble Forecast

Ensemble spaghetti plots show individual forecasts from 31 model runs, each initialized with slightly different atmospheric starting conditions. When the lines cluster tightly together, confidence is high. When they diverge, forecast uncertainty is large.

The thick line is the ensemble mean. The shaded band shows the p10–p90 spread (middle 80% of members). Data via Open-Meteo · 6-hourly resolution.